Report published August 14, 2026
Jefferies July Credit Monitor Preview: Seasonal Trends & Loan Growth in Consumer Finance
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Jefferies
- Report date
- August 14, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: John Hecht (Equity Analyst), Alexander Villalobos-Morsink (Equity Associate), Yuna Sohn (Equity Associate), Aleksander Labosky (Equity Associate)
Finvaulta summarizes Jefferies's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Jefferies previews July card issuer credit data ahead of the August 17 reporting date, forecasting mixed M/M NCO and DQ results due to typical July seasonality. Credit quality across AXP, BFH, COF, and SYF remains solid, with loan growth gaining momentum.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Month-over-month credit metrics are expected to show mixed results for net charge-offs (NCOs) and delinquencies (DQs), with DQs seasonally tending to rise in July.
- 2.Card loan growth is starting to gain momentum across issuers, particularly on the lower-end consumer segment.
- 3.Credit performance remains healthy relative to history: AXP and COF metrics are tracking below pre-pandemic averages, SYF is at or below historical averages, and BFH continues to trend favorably despite staying above pre-pandemic levels.
Table of Contents
- July Credit Monitor Prev.: All OK - Expecting Seasonal Trends + Steady Growth
- Exhibit 1 - JEF Estimates vs Recent Trends - Card Issuers
- Exhibit 2 - AXP DQ Rate Fcst
- Exhibit 3 - AXP NCO Rate Fcst
- Exhibit 4 - BFH DQ Rate Fcst
- Exhibit 5 - BFH NCO Rate Fcst
- Exhibit 6 - COF DQ Rate Fcst
- Exhibit 7 - COF NCO Rate Fcst
- Exhibit 8 - SYF DQ Rate Fcst
- Exhibit 9 - SYF NCO Rate Fcst
Report data
Exhibit 1 - JEF Estimates vs Recent Trends - Card Issuers
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| AXP Forecasted July NCO Rate | 1.55% | Managed personal card portfolio monthly net charge-off rate forecast |
| BFH Forecasted July NCO Rate | 7.08% | Managed portfolio monthly net charge-off rate forecast |
| COF Forecasted July NCO Rate | 4.2% | Managed portfolio monthly net charge-off rate forecast |
| SYF Forecasted July NCO Rate | 5.02% | Managed portfolio monthly net charge-off rate forecast |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- AXP Forecasted July NCO Rate: 1.55 % (2026-07) · Source: Jefferies
- BFH Forecasted July NCO Rate: 7.08 % (2026-07) · Source: Jefferies
- COF Forecasted July NCO Rate: 4.2 % (2026-07) · Source: Jefferies
- SYF Forecasted July NCO Rate: 5.02 % (2026-07) · Source: Jefferies
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