Report published August 15, 2026
Jefferies Weekly Refining Update: Forward Curves and Spot Margins Climb Led by Mid-Con
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Jefferies
- Report date
- August 15, 2026
- Analysis as of
- August 14, 2026
Authors / editors: Lloyd Byrne, Emma Schwartz, Cecilia Tang, Sam Burwell, John Edelman, Rahul Kakkar, Spencer Duryee, CFA
Finvaulta summarizes Jefferies's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Spot refining margins and forward curves climbed week-on-week and year-over-year, led by an 18% w/w increase in Mid-Continent crack spreads. High refinery utilization rates persisted across the US at 96.2%, while foot traffic at US gas stations showed a modest YoY contraction.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Spot refining margins and forward curves increased both week-on-week and year-over-year, driven primarily by strong performance in the Mid-Continent region.
- 2.The Mid-Con 321 margin surged 18% week-on-week, while USGC Cushing 321 rose 8% and NWE Dated Brent GC 321 climbed 9%.
- 3.Proprietary JEF foot traffic data at US gas stations indicated a ~4% year-over-year decrease and a ~2.4% rolling 3-month YoY decline for the month of May.
Table of Contents
- Fwd Curves and Spot Margins Climb Lead by MidCon
- Composite Crack Spreads
- MPC Indicators
- PSX Indicators
- VLO Indicators
- Forward Curves
- US Refinery Utilization
- China Refinery Utilization
- China Supertanker Crude Imports
- Crack Spreads
- Demand Summary
- Crude Oil & Total Products Demand Tables
- Distillates & Jet Fuel Demand Tables
- Gasoline & Propane / Propylene Demand Tables
- ISO-Octane Margin
Report data
Exhibit 1 - Crack Spreads Summary — as of August 14, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Jefferies Global Composite 4-Wk MA Margin | 48.17 $/bbl | Global composite 4-week moving average margin weighted across Asia Minas, USGC WTI, and Brent USGC crack spreads. |
| Mid-Con 321 Crack Spread | 87.9 $/bbl | Mid-Continent 321 crack spread spot margin. |
| Total US Refinery Operable Capacity Utilization | 96.2% | Total US refinery operable capacity utilization rate. |
| Total US Refined Products Demand | 20605 thousand barrels per day (mbpd) | Weekly total product demand in the United States. |
| Iso-Octane Margin | 103.06 $/bbl | Iso-octane refining margin. |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Jefferies Global Composite 4-Wk MA Margin: 48.17 $/bbl (2026-08-14) · Source: Jefferies, Bloomberg
- Mid-Con 321 Crack Spread: 87.9 $/bbl (2026-08-14) · Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies
- Total US Refinery Operable Capacity Utilization: 96.2 % (2026-08-07) · Source: DOE / EIA, Bloomberg
- Total US Refined Products Demand: 20605 thousand barrels per day (mbpd) (Week ending 2026-08-07) · Source: Bloomberg, EIA
- Iso-Octane Margin: 103.06 $/bbl (2026-08-14) · Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies
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