ING Rates Strategy: Why 4.75% Is a Natural Fit for the 10-Year Treasury Yield

ING argues that the US 10-year Treasury yield is fundamentally anchored near 4.75%–4.8% based on nominal growth and a 6% fiscal deficit. While expanded Treasury buybacks have capped yields below 5.0%, structural issuance pressure prevents a sustainable move below 4.5%.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The US 10-year Treasury yield is expected to remain bounded within a 4.5% to 5.0% range, with 4.75% to 4.8% representing fair value based on nominal GDP growth fundamentals.
• 2.US Treasury buybacks have provided short-term relief, pulling 10-year yields down to 4.65%, but structural upward pressures from issuance and productivity gains remain.
• 3.Treasury buyback expansion acts as an unwritten cap on yields at 5%, but a break below 4.5% remains unlikely as underlying supply pressures persist.

Table of Contents

• Rates Spark: Why 4.75% is a natural fit for the 10yr yield
• Mapping 4.5% to 5% as the key extremity bands for the 10yr yield
• Wednesday's events and market views
• Author
• Disclaimer

Report data

We see the US 10yr yield staying in the 4.5% to 5% range for now

Reports in this series

Rates Spark is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 26, 2026.

Part of the Rates Spark series — view all 32 editions

Looking for the latest edition? ING Think rates spark so how bad could this whole thing get (Sep 2, 2026)

1. May 14ING-Think-rates-spark-the-evaporation-of-real-yields
2. May 15ING-Think-rates-spark-flip-the-gaze-from-china-back-to-iran
3. May 19ING-Think-rates-markets-have-shifted-to-a-broader-inflation-impact
4. May 20ING-Think-rates-spark-still-exposed
5. May 22ING-Think-rates-spark-differences-brought-into-sharper-relief
6. May 27ING-Think-rates-spark-up-and-down-with-oil
7. May 28ING-Think-rates-spark-plenty-of-supply-as-we-approach-summer
8. May 29ING-Think-rates-spark-watch-inflation-expectations-drift-higher
9. Jun 3ING-Think-rates-spark-the-real-deal
10. Jun 4ING-Think-rates-spark-spread-exposures
11. Jun 10ING-Think-rates-spark-oil-losing-control
12. Jun 11ING-Think-rates-spark-bracing-for-a-hawkish-ecb
13. Jun 12ING-Think-rates-spark-oil-still-key-to-ecb-outlook
14. Jun 15ING-Think-rates-spark-the-damage-has-been-done
15. Jun 23ING-Think-rates-spark-gilts-dont-like-political-uncertainty
16. Jun 24ING-Think-rates-spark-bonds-back-to-hedging-market-risks
17. Jun 25ING-Think-rates-spark-more-repricing-risk-at-front-end
18. Jun 30ING-Think-rates-spark-too-early-for-the-doves
19. Jul 1ING-Think-rates-spark-uk-political-risk-closely-tied-to-inflation-outlook
20. Jul 3ING-Think-rates-spark-resumed-steepening-impulse
21. Jul 7ING-Think-rates-spark-potential-relief-for-gilts-amid-a-bearish-bias
22. Jul 8ING-Think-rates-spark-another-push-higher-in-real-rates
23. Jul 10ING-Think-rates-spark-markets-looking-through-geopolitical-risks
24. Jul 15ING-Think-rates-spark-eur-rates-cannot-follow-a-dovish-us
25. Aug 17ING Think rates spark heavy treasuries and tight eurozone liquidity
26. Aug 17ING Think rates spark xxxxxxxxx
27. Aug 24ING Think rates spark its about bigger buybacks not how its financed
28. Aug 25ING Think rates spark markets not pricing volatile times

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