Warsh Guides Forward Without Forward Guidance: ING US Rates Strategy

Fed Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, noting non-restrictive monetary conditions and unresolved inflation pressures. Consequently, the US Treasury yield curve flattened as markets increased the probability of a September rate hike to 54%.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Fed Chair Warsh delivered a net hawkish message at Jackson Hole, emphasizing that price stability is not self-executing and inflation is well above 2%.
• 2.The US yield curve flattened from both ends, with the 2-year yield rising to 4.3% while the 30-year yield ticked slightly down.
• 3.Markets repriced the September FOMC meeting to a toss-up, lifting hike probabilities from 34% to 54%.

Table of Contents

• Warsh guides forward without forward guidance
• Warsh's hawkish words pivots the curve flatter
• Author
• Disclaimer

Report data

Fed Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone at the Jackson Hole Symposium and the yield curve has come out flatter on both ends

Reports in this series

Snap is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 28, 2026.

Part of the Snap series — view all 24 editions

Looking for the latest edition? ING Think why we think that the low hungarian inflation wont lead to an immediate rate cut (Sep 8, 2026)

1. Aug 17ING Think construction pricing heat up in czechia
2. Aug 25ING Think german ifo index aug26
3. Aug 26ING Think us spending stalls as inflation makes slow progress towards target
4. Aug 27ING Think bsp stays hawkish as inflation risks remain elevated
5. Aug 27ING Think eurozone bank lending growth accelerated in july
6. Aug 27ING Think ecb prepares markets for september rate hike

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