Report published September 24, 2026

US Manufacturing Revival Gathers Pace Despite Tariff and Energy Headwinds: Macro Analysis by ING

ING · September 24, 2026

US manufacturing is rebounding after three years of stagnation, supported by order book momentum, AI infrastructure demand, and domestic energy advantages despite tariff adjustments and high financing costs. ING forecasts 1.5–2% annual volume growth over the next three years, concentrated heavily in advanced, automated manufacturing.

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Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.US manufacturing is emerging from a three-year stagnation, driven by order books, AI/robotic technologies, defence spending, and energy cost advantages, with annual volume growth forecast at 1.5–2% over the next three years.
2.The revival is sharply bifurcated: highly automated, high-value advanced manufacturing (tech, power, aerospace, pharma) is expanding rapidly, while traditional, labour-intensive manufacturing continues to contract under foreign competition and retaliatory tariffs.
3.Announced reshoring has yet to translate into aggregate manufacturing construction, which dropped from an annualised peak of $249bn in September 2024 to $170bn due to the conclusion of CHIPS Act funding and multi-year construction lead times.

Tariffs remain President Trump’s primary tool
Reshoring yet to show up in construction activity
The Middle East conflict and energy prices
Financial conditions are a headwind
Sector performance diverges markedly
Modest growth disguises growing bifurcation

Report data

Advanced manufacturing versus traditional output (Dec 2007 = 100)

Metric	Estimate	Context
Manufacturing output decline vs Dec 2007 peak	10%	Output volumes remain below the peak level hit just before the Global Financial Crisis.
Manufacturing employment net change vs 20 years ago	-1000000 workers	The sector employs one million fewer workers than it did two decades ago.
Refunded IEEPA tariffs	166 USD billion	Supreme Court required full refund of tariffs collected under IEEPA.
Manufacturing employment change	58000 jobs	US manufacturing sector job gains in the first eight months of the year.
Foreign direct investment in US manufacturing	2.5 USD trillion	Record level reported by the National Association of Manufacturers.