Report published August 25, 2026
US Aluminium Tariffs, Midwest Premiums, and Domestic Smelting Challenges
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- ING
- Report date
- August 25, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Ewa Manthey (Commodities Strategist)
Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
US efforts to reshore aluminium production face severe headwinds from multi-year build times and intense competition for electrical power from AI data centers. Following collapsed trade talks with Canada, a 50% tariff will continue to drive up Midwest premiums and input costs for US manufacturers.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The US relies on imports (chiefly from Canada) for around 85% of its aluminium needs while producing only ~750,000 tonnes domestically per year.
- 2.A 50% tariff on Canadian aluminium following collapsed bilateral trade talks has driven the Midwest premium to record highs, raising input costs for US manufacturers.
- 3.Rebuilding domestic smelting capacity requires massive baseload electricity, putting aluminium projects in direct competition with AI data centers for power.
Table of Contents
- Canada dominates US aluminium imports
- Tariffs lift US aluminium costs
- Tariffs push the Midwest premium to record highs
- New capacity needs power
- Aluminium competes with data centres
- US aluminium capacity has fallen
- US will continue to rely on Canada
- Author
- Disclaimer
Report data
Tariffs push the Midwest premium to record highs
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| US Primary Aluminium Output | 750000 tonnes/year | Current annual primary aluminium production in the United States. |
| US Aluminium Import Share of Demand | 85% | Portion of US domestic aluminium consumption met by imports. |
| US Tariff on Canadian Aluminium | 50% | Tariff rate on Canadian aluminium following collapsed trade talks. |
| Electricity Share of Primary Aluminium Production Cost | 30-40% | Share of production cost attributed to electricity for primary smelters. |
| Inola Smelter Power Requirement | 1.2 GW | Power capacity needed for the proposed $4B Inola, Oklahoma aluminium smelter. |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- US Primary Aluminium Output: 750000 tonnes/year (2026) · Source: ING Research
- US Aluminium Import Share of Demand: 85 % (2026) · Source: ING Research
- US Tariff on Canadian Aluminium: 50 % (2026) · Source: ING Research
- Electricity Share of Primary Aluminium Production Cost: 30-40 % (2026) · Source: ING Research
- Inola Smelter Power Requirement: 1.2 GW (Projected) · Source: ING Research
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