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Report published August 28, 2026

The Commodities Feed: Oil Prices Up Even as Hormuz Flows Increase – ING Research

Source and citation context

Issuer
ING
Report date
August 28, 2026
Analysis as of
Not stated in source

Authors / editors: Warren Patterson (Head of Commodities Strategy), Ewa Manthey (Commodities Strategist)

Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Daily UpdateCommoditiesDerivativesEnergyMaterials

Commodity markets saw gains across energy and agriculture as fading US-Iran diplomatic talks boosted oil and European gas, while escalating Black Sea tensions drove CBOT wheat to a three-year high. Zinc prices pulled back slightly but remain underpinned by tight concentrate supply and steep prompt spread premiums.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Brent crude and European TTF natural gas prices rose as optimism for renewed US-Iran diplomatic talks faded, while oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz show signs of gradual increase to 6-8m b/d.
  • 2.OPEC faces further potential fragmentation as Venezuela considers exiting the group following improved ties and US control over its oil sales.
  • 3.CBOT wheat reached a three-year high on intensifying Black Sea supply risks, port damage, and expectations of sharp shipment declines from Ukraine and Russia.

Table of Contents

  • Energy – Venezuela considering OPEC exit
  • Metals – Zinc rally eases but tight mine supply supports market
  • Agriculture – Wheat hits three-year high as Black Sea supply risks intensify
  • Author
  • Disclaimer

Report data

Cover image for The Commodities Feed

MetricEstimateContext
ICE Brent daily settlement change2.1%ICE Brent ended higher for the first time in the week as US-Iran talks optimism faded.
Estimated Strait of Hormuz oil flow6-8 m b/dEstimated oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, compared to a prior assumed average of 5m b/d.
TTF natural gas daily settlement change3.8%European gas benchmark TTF settled higher on US/Iran talk headlines and tight storage.
Zinc cash-to-three-month spread premium200 $/tWidest backwardation premium for prompt zinc delivery over 3-month contract since December.
Budel zinc smelter capacity315 ktpaNyrstar completed a 71-day maintenance programme at the Budel zinc smelter.
Source: ICE; LME; Nyrstar. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.

Reports in this series

The Commodities Feed is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 28, 2026.

Part of the The Commodities Feed series — view all 24 editions

Looking for the latest edition? ING Think the commodities feed oil nears 100 bbl amid persian gulf escalation090926 (Sep 9, 2026)

  1. May 19ING-Think-the-commodities-feed-us-extends-russian-oil-waiver190526
  2. May 22ING-Think-the-commodities-feed-lingering-uncertainty-sees-oil-prices-oscillating220526
  3. May 29ING-Think-the-commodities-feed-ceasefire-optimism-weighs-on-energy-markets290526
  4. Jun 2ING-Think-the-commodities-feed-mixed-messages-leaves-oil-see-sawing020626
  5. Jun 4ING-Think-the-commodities-feed-oils-deflating-inventory-a
  6. Jun 5ING-Think-the-commodities-feed-oil-falls-despite-little-sign-of-progress-in-us-iran-talks050626
  7. Jun 10ING-Think-the-commodities-feed-middle-east-re-escalation-sees-oil-recover100626
  8. Jun 11ING-Think-the-commodities-feed-oil-moves-higher-on-the-latest-escalation110626
  9. Jun 12ING-Think-the-commodities-feed-oil-falls-as-trump-signals-deal-with-iran-is-close120626
  10. Jun 15ING-Think-the-commodities-feed-us-iran-peace-deal
  11. Jun 22ING-Think-the-commodities-feed-oil-moves-higher-with-shaky-start-to-ceasefire220626
  12. Jun 23ING-Think-the-commodities-feed-oil-sells-off-as-the-us-eases-sanctions-on-iran230626
  13. Jun 24ING-Think-the-commodities-feed-hormuz-recovery-continues-to-weigh-on-oil240626
  14. Jun 29ING-Think-the-commodities-feed-oil-market-shrugs-off-persian-gulf-escalation290626
  15. Jul 3ING-Think-the-commodities-feed-oil-under-pressure-as-middle-east-flows-continue-to-recover030726
  16. Jul 13ING-Think-the-commodities-feed-the-battle-of-hormuz-lifts-oil-prices130726
  17. Aug 17ING Think the commodities feed oil near 90 on escalating middle east risks
  18. Aug 25ING Think the commodities feed oil market shrugs off bessents economic d day plan for iran250826
  19. Aug 26ING Think the commodities feed oil falls on strait of hormuz talks

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Authors / Editors

Warren Patterson · Head of Commodities StrategyEwa Manthey · Commodities Strategist

Reported Data Context

  • ICE Brent daily settlement change: 2.1 % (previous day) · Source: ICE
  • Estimated Strait of Hormuz oil flow: 6-8 m b/d (August 2026)
  • TTF natural gas daily settlement change: 3.8 % (previous day)
  • Zinc cash-to-three-month spread premium: 200 $/t (Wednesday) · Source: LME
  • Budel zinc smelter capacity: 315 ktpa (2026) · Source: Nyrstar

Securities

TTF Natural GasCBOT WheatICE Brent CrudeLME Zinc

Themes

Geopolitical Disruption to Energy and Agriculture Trade FlowsOPEC Membership Realignment and CohesionBase Metals Smelting Bottlenecks and Physical Tightness

Regions

Middle EastEuropeNorth AmericaUnited StatesIranVenezuela

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INGDaily UpdateCommoditiesDerivatives

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