Report published August 28, 2026
RBNZ Preview: A 25bp Hike with Dovish Risks for NZD/USD
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- ING
- Report date
- August 28, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Francesco Pesole
Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
ING expects the RBNZ to hike the cash rate by 25bp to 2.75% on 2 September and signal a peak of 3.00%. Because markets are priced for a 3.50% terminal rate, lower inflation forecasts pose dovish risks that could weigh on NZD.
Key Takeaways
- 1.ING expects the RBNZ to hike the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bp to 2.75% on 2 September, with one final 25bp hike to reach a terminal rate of 3.00%.
- 2.Market pricing is overly aggressive, implying a peak rate of 3.50% by mid-2027, setting a high hurdle for a hawkish surprise.
- 3.Inflation projections are likely to be revised lower and unemployment is edging up, presenting dovish risks that could cap NZD/USD at 0.60 by year-end.
Table of Contents
- RBNZ to hike, but bar is high for hawkish surprise
- Markets even more hawkish than May's RBNZ projections
- Inflation should be revised lower
- Rates heading to 3.0%, NZD upside limited
- Author
- Disclaimer
Report data
Markets even more hawkish than May's RBNZ projections
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| RBNZ Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) | 2.75% | Expected post-meeting policy rate following a 25bp hike. |
| Market Implied OCR Peak | 3.50% | Market OIS pricing for RBNZ terminal cash rate. |
| New Zealand CPI Inflation | 4.1% | 2Q CPI rose to 4.1%, slightly below the RBNZ forecast of 4.2%. |
| New Zealand Unemployment Rate | 5.6% | Unemployment rose unexpectedly due to a sharp increase in participation. |
| New Zealand Employment Growth | 0.5 % QoQ | Quarter-on-quarter employment growth surprised to the upside. |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- RBNZ Overnight Cash Rate (OCR): 2.75 % (2026-09-02) · Source: ING
- Market Implied OCR Peak: 3.50 % (mid-2027) · Source: Refinitiv
- New Zealand CPI Inflation: 4.1 % (2Q26) · Source: RBNZ
- New Zealand Unemployment Rate: 5.6 % (2Q26)
- New Zealand Employment Growth: 0.5 % QoQ (2Q26)
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