Report published September 24, 2026

Rates Spark: US 10yr Continues to Target 5.25%+ – ING Rates Strategy Report

ING · September 24, 2026

The US 10-year Treasury yield is maintaining its upward momentum toward 5.25%-5.5%, supported by climbing real yields and debt issuance dynamics. European long-end yields remain under pressure as well, with German Bunds probing 3.6% ahead of next week's crucial inflation and jobs data.

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Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to target the 5.25%-5.5% range, driven primarily by higher real yields and sovereign debt supply dynamics.
2.The market has discounted ample rate hike fears, leaving long-end government bond yields vulnerable to debt supply pressures and wider swap spreads.
3.European long-end yields face similar upward pressure with German Bunds testing 3.6% and 10Y French OAT spreads lingering at 109bp over Bunds.

The rate hike discount looks extreme, but long bond yields can remain under pressure
The bearish narrative remains intact with none of the key drivers behind the recent sell-off is showing signs of fading
Friday's events and market view

Report data

Bearish sentiment continues for long-end bonds

Metric	Estimate	Context
US 10-Year Yield Target Area	5.25 - 5.5%	Target zone for ongoing yield overshoot
US 5-Year Treasury Auction Tail	3 bp	Substantial auction tail prompting a follow-through rise in the 10yr yield
US Treasury Reverse Auction Buyback Volume	4.1 USD bn	Latest reverse auction buyback under Treasury Secretary Bessent's programme
ECB Rate Hikes Priced	100 bp	Market pricing appears ambitious given macroeconomic uncertainty
German 10-Year Bund Yield Level	3.6%	Long-end Bund rate under upward pressure