Report published August 26, 2026
National Bank of Hungary Review: Rate Cut Cycle, Policy Outlook & EUR/HUF Forecast
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- ING
- Report date
- August 26, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Peter Virovacz, Frantisek Taborsky, Zoltán Homolya
Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
The National Bank of Hungary lowered its key interest rate by 25bp to 5.50% in August, concluding its summer mini-cycle. ING expects the central bank to ease policy further with three additional rate cuts in 2026, targeting a year-end base rate of 4.75%.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The National Bank of Hungary cut its base rate by 25bp to 5.50% in August, concluding its pre-announced summer mini-cycle.
- 2.ING forecasts three additional rate cuts in 2026, bringing the policy rate to 4.75% by year-end, with a terminal rate of 4.00% by end-2028.
- 3.EUR/HUF is expected to remain rangebound within 355–365 as the central bank prioritizes FX stability to anchor inflation expectations.
Table of Contents
- ING's policy view: We see scope for further cuts in the autumn
- ING's market views
- Our three takeaways from the press conference
- Author
- Disclaimer
Report data
We forecast three further rate cuts in Hungary this year
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Key Interest Rate | 5.50% | National Bank of Hungary base rate cut |
| Forecast Base Rate (End-2026) | 4.75% | Forecasted Hungarian policy rate by the end of 2026 |
| Terminal Interest Rate | 4.00% | Forecasted terminal policy rate for Hungary |
| Market Priced Easing | 50 bp | Amount of rate cuts currently priced in by Hungarian rates markets |
| Target EUR/HUF Range | 355–365 EUR/HUF | Estimated central bank target trading range for the forint |
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THINK Economic and Financial Analysis is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 26, 2026.
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Key Interest Rate: 5.50 % (2026-08-25)
- Forecast Base Rate (End-2026): 4.75 % (End of 2026) · Source: ING
- Terminal Interest Rate: 4.00 % (End of 2028) · Source: ING
- Market Priced Easing: 50 bp (Current / August 2026)
- Target EUR/HUF Range: 355–365 EUR/HUF (Near term)
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