Report published September 30, 2026

Higher Fuel Costs Lift Polish Inflation to 4%: ING Economic Analysis

ING · September 30, 2026

Poland's flash September CPI climbed to 4.0% YoY from 3.4% YoY in August, propelled by a 9.2% MoM surge in fuel prices following the reinstatement of standard 23% VAT. Although core inflation moderated to 3.0-3.1% YoY, ING expects persistent inflation pressures to prompt 50bp of central bank rate hikes in early 2027.

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Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Poland's flash September CPI accelerated to 4.0% YoY from 3.4% YoY in August, driven predominantly by a 9.2% MoM surge in retail fuel prices after VAT was restored to 23%.
2.Core inflation excluding food and energy fell slightly to an estimated 3.0-3.1% YoY, indicating that energy cost pressures have not yet broadly contaminated core goods and services.
3.With headline inflation now above the NBP's 2.5% +/- 1ppt tolerance band and projected to stay above 4%, ING forecasts 50bp of rate hikes in early 2027, with MPC discussions starting as early as November.

Poland's inflation is well above target

Report data

Poland's inflation is well above target / CPI and its sources, %YoY, perc. points.

Metric	Estimate	Context
Poland Flash CPI Inflation	4.0 % YoY	Headline Polish CPI inflation flash estimate
Fuel Prices MoM Change	9.2 % MoM	Fuel price increase driven by standard VAT reinstatement and global crude prices
Fuel Prices YoY Change	36.1 % YoY	Year-on-year increase in retail fuel prices
Estimated Core Inflation Excluding Food and Energy	3.0-3.1 % YoY	Estimated core CPI excluding food and energy
Food Prices MoM Change	0.1 % MoM	Food prices shift after four months of declines