Report published September 24, 2026

German Economy Defies Surging Oil Prices and Interest Rates: ING Research Report

ING · September 24, 2026

The German Ifo index rose for the fifth consecutive month to 89.9 in September 2026, indicating an unexpected cyclical rebound despite rising oil prices and interest rates. ING projects full-year GDP growth of around 1%, marking Germany's best performance since 2022.

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Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.The German Ifo index increased for the fifth straight month to 89.9 in September from 88.8 in August, reaching its highest level in over a year.
2.ING forecasts full-year German GDP growth of around 1% for 2026, marking its strongest growth performance since 2022.
3.A cyclical rebound is underway thanks to fiscal stimulus trickling through, but structural challenges, high energy costs, supply-chain vulnerabilities, and political fragmentation continue to cloud the long-term outlook.

German economy defies surging oil prices and interest rates
On track for the best growth performance since 2022
Political uncertainty remains

Report data

Ifo Index trajectory / German economic indicators

Metric	Estimate	Context
Ifo Index	89.9 index points	German leading indicator Ifo index rose to 89.9 in September from 88.8 in August, marking the fifth consecutive month of increases.
Ifo Index	88.8 index points	Previous month level for the German Ifo index.
German GDP Growth Forecast	1%	ING's full-year expected GDP growth for Germany.