Report published September 8, 2026
ING FX Talking: Don't Call It a Dollar Comeback – September 2026 FX Strategy
ING · September 8, 2026
ING expects a 25bp Fed rate hike in September to 4.00%, delaying the anticipated cyclical US dollar depreciation until spring 2027. Consequently, EUR/USD is revised lower to end the year near 1.16, while USD/JPY is projected to trade within a 155-160 range.
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Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.ING expects a 25bp Fed rate hike in September, delaying the anticipated cyclical dollar decline until spring 2027.
- 2.EUR/USD year-end forecast is lowered to 1.16 from 1.18 due to US yield curve bearish flattening supporting the dollar against low yielders.
- 3.USD/JPY is more likely to trade in a 155-160 range rather than drop under 150 because significant yen-positive monetary tightening is already priced in.
Table of Contents
- Don't call it a dollar comeback
- Developed markets
- Emerging markets
- LATAM
- Asia
- ING foreign exchange forecasts
Report data
ING FX forecasts
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Target Policy Rate (Forecast) | 4.00% | ING expects a 25bp rate hike by the Fed at the September meeting. |
| EUR/USD 3-Month Forecast | 1.16 USD per EUR | Year-end target lowered from 1.18. |
| USD/JPY Spot Rate | 155.50 JPY per USD | Spot rate at publication time. |
| Bank of Japan Policy Rate (Market Pricing) | 1.25% | Market expectations priced into the 18 September BoJ meeting. |
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FX Talking is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 8, 2026.
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