Report published September 7, 2026

FX Daily: Staring at the Geopolitical Headlights – ING Research

ING · September 7, 2026

FX markets are consolidating amid geopolitical headlines, firm energy prices, and resilient growth. ING expects the US dollar to remain supported against European and CEE currencies as market pricing for the Fed appears under-priced ahead of August CPI.

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Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.The US dollar is supported by elevated energy prices and an under-priced Fed hiking path heading into August CPI.
2.EUR/USD faces downside risks ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting, alongside regional German election headwinds.
3.CEE markets are pricing excessive rate hikes of around 80bp in Poland and the Czech Republic, creating upside risks for EUR/CZK and EUR/PLN as bets unwind.

USD: Should be doing a little better
EUR: Contained
CEE: Hawkish pricing meets dovish central banks
KRW: Too far, too fast

Report data

Key figures extracted from this report

Metric	Estimate	Context
Fed 25bp Rate Hike Probability	58%	Market-implied probability for a 25bp Federal Reserve rate hike on 16 September.
US Treasury Bond Auctions Size	119 USD billion	US Treasury auctions of three, 10, and 30-year bonds.
Eurozone Q2 GDP Growth	0.4 % QoQ	Confirmed second-quarter growth rate for the eurozone.
National Bank of Poland Policy Rate	3.75%	Expected NBP decision to hold rates unchanged.
Central Bank of Turkey Policy Rate	37%	Central Bank of Turkey expected to hold repo rates.

Source: US Treasury; National Bank of Poland; Central Bank of Turkey. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.

Reports in this series

FX Daily is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 7, 2026.

Part of the FX Daily series — view all 73 editions

Looking for the latest edition? ING Think fx daily no trigger in sight for a dollar reversal (Oct 13, 2026)

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Authors / Editors

Chris Turner · Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for UK & CEEFrantisek Taborsky · EMEA FX & FI StrategistFrancesco Pesole · FX Strategist