Report published August 27, 2026
FX Daily: September Fed Conundrum Remains – ING FX Research
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- ING
- Report date
- August 27, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Francesco Pesole (Author), Chris Turner (Co-author)
Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
ING maintains its call that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates in September despite persistent hawkish market pricing. FX markets are positioned cautiously ahead of Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, with DXY supported above 99.0.
Key Takeaways
- 1.ING maintains its call for the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates on 16 September despite hawkish market pricing of around 9bp.
- 2.DXY may find support above 99.0 ahead of Kevin Warsh's pivotal Jackson Hole address.
- 3.Bank of Japan rate hike expectations (21bp priced for 18 September) are unlikely to be derailed by Tokyo CPI, though USD/JPY downside below 158 remains sticky.
Table of Contents
- USD: Wait and see ahead of Warsh's speech
- EUR: Not touched by Russia headlines
- JPY: Tokyo CPI shouldn't change hawkish views
- AUD: We are still leaning towards a hold despite hot data
- Author
- Disclaimer
Report data
Jackson Hole takes centre stage tomorrow as Kevin Warsh delivers what could be a market-moving speech
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| US Core PCE Inflation MoM | 0.2% | Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge printed in line with expectations. |
| US Core PCE Inflation YoY | 3.3% | Annual core PCE inflation rate. |
| US Headline PCE Inflation YoY | 3.7% | Headline PCE came in slightly firmer at 0.2% MoM and 3.7% YoY. |
| BoJ September Rate Hike Pricing | 21 bp | Market confidence on a rate hike by the Bank of Japan on 18 September. |
| Australia Household Spending YoY | 7% | Strong household spending helping hawkish case for RBA tightening. |
Reports in this series
FX Daily is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 27, 2026.
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- US Core PCE Inflation MoM: 0.2 % (July)
- US Core PCE Inflation YoY: 3.3 % (July)
- US Headline PCE Inflation YoY: 3.7 % (July)
- BoJ September Rate Hike Pricing: 21 bp (September 2026)
- Australia Household Spending YoY: 7 % (July)
Securities
Themes
Regions
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