Report published August 17, 2026
ING FX Daily: Cooler US Data Dents Fed Hike Odds and Pressures the Dollar
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- ING
- Report date
- August 17, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Chris Turner (Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for UK & CEE), Frantisek Taborsky (EMEA FX & FI Strategist), Francesco Pesole (FX Strategist)
Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
A softer run of US macroeconomic data has curbed Federal Reserve rate hike expectations and weakened the US dollar, sustaining low summer volatility and supporting risk assets. Investors continue to favor carry trades and European/CEE currencies over the dollar, yen, and Swiss franc.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Softer US retail sales data reduced September Fed hike pricing to just 7bp, lowering short-dated US rates and weakening the USD while supporting risk assets.
- 2.EUR/USD is pressing resistance at 1.1585 with upside potential towards 1.1650, supported by lower US yields and diversification inflows into eurozone assets.
- 3.UK economic data this week may not support the 55bp of BoE tightening priced in, keeping the authors mildly negative on sterling and targeting EUR/GBP towards 0.8575/85.
Table of Contents
- USD: Softer run of data continues
- EUR: Exploring the upside
- GBP: Bigger week for UK data
- CEE: Hawkish rates support FX recovery
- Author
- Disclaimer
Report data
A run of slightly cooler US data is weighing on the dollar and proving supportive for risk assets
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Fed September rate hike pricing | 7 bp | Market expectations for a Fed rate hike scaled down after softer July retail sales. |
| Fed tightening cycle expectations into next year | 35 bp | Expectations scaled back from 50bp to 35bp. |
| Eurozone debt and equity demand flow | 1 trillion EUR | Strong international investor flow into eurozone debt and equity markets as a diversification play. |
| Bank of England tightening priced into money market curves | 55 bp | ING expects upcoming UK wage/jobs and CPI data will be insufficient to support this pricing. |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Fed September rate hike pricing: 7 bp (September 2026 meeting)
- Fed tightening cycle expectations into next year: 35 bp (Through next year)
- Eurozone debt and equity demand flow: 1 trillion EUR (Rolling 12-month basis)
- Bank of England tightening priced into money market curves: 55 bp (Current curve pricing)
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