Report published September 30, 2026

FX Daily: October Fed Hike Remains Very Data Dependent

ING · September 30, 2026

The US dollar remains supported by rising back-end bond yields despite soft domestic consumer sentiment and JOLTS data. Markets await key US PCE and ADP payroll figures to gauge whether an October Fed hike will be fully repriced, keeping pressure on EUR/USD and CEE currencies.

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Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.The US dollar continues to strengthen despite weak US consumer sentiment (81.9) and JOLTS data (7,079k), supported by rising back-end bond yields.
2.Pricing for an October FOMC rate hike fell by 5bp to 12bp (below 50%), highlighting extreme data dependency ahead of ADP payrolls and core PCE.
3.EUR/USD breached summer lows to trade around 1.1310-1.1350; strong US data and an October Fed hike could send the pair down toward 1.10.

USD: Dollar strengthens despite soft data
EUR: Testing new lows
PLN: Inflation surge puts rate hikes in focus
CEE: Energy risks keep forint under pressure

Report data

The dollar jumped higher again yesterday despite soft US data

Metric	Estimate	Context
US Consumer Confidence	81.9 index	US consumer confidence fell sharply well below expectations.
US JOLTS Job Openings	7,079 thousands	JOLTS job openings declined and undershot consensus.
October FOMC hike pricing	12 bp	Pricing fell to lowest level in around two weeks, dropping below a 50% probability.
Poland Flash CPI Inflation (YoY)	4.2%	ING forecast for headline CPI rising from 3.4% to 4.2% YoY, exceeding NBP upper target band.
Czech Republic Q2 GDP (YoY)	1.9%	Final GDP data expected to confirm 1.9% YoY growth.