Report published August 26, 2026
FX Daily: Lower Energy Prices and Treasury Yields Support Risk Assets and Carry Trades
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- ING
- Report date
- August 26, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky
Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Lower energy prices and US Treasury yields are easing volatility across FX and equity markets, creating a soft backdrop for the US dollar. ING favors a drift lower in DXY toward 98.60, upside in EUR/USD toward 1.1700/10, and continued Hungarian forint strength.
Key Takeaways
- 1.An 8% decline in oil prices and softer yields support risk assets, pointing to mild DXY dollar softness with resistance at 99.00/10 and support at 98.60.
- 2.EUR/USD is supported at 1.1650/60 with upside towards 1.1700/10, reinforced by resilient Eurozone data and ECB hike expectations.
- 3.The National Bank of Hungary delivered a 25bp cut to 5.50%, with ING targeting year-end EUR/HUF at 3.50 and 10-year yields at 4.75%.
Table of Contents
- US: Softer energy helps risk
- + EUR: Schnabel sounds upbeat
- + HUF: Forint recovers
- ➔ CNY: Slowdown in pace of appreciation?
- Author
- Disclaimer
Report data
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Oil Price Change | -8.0% | Drop in oil prices since the previous week aided by Middle East peace talks. |
| US Long-Dated Treasury Yield Change | -10 to -15 bp | Decline in longer-dated US yields following Bessent's Treasury intervention. |
| US 7-Year Note Auction Size | 44 USD billion | Scheduled US Treasury note auction. |
| US Core PCE MoM Forecast | 0.2% | Benign print expected to keep the US dollar relatively steady. |
| NBH Policy Rate | 5.50% | National Bank of Hungary policy rate after 25bp cut. |
Reports in this series
FX Daily is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 26, 2026.
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Oil Price Change: -8.0 % (Week over week)
- US Long-Dated Treasury Yield Change: -10 to -15 bp (Week over week)
- US 7-Year Note Auction Size: 44 USD billion (Upcoming (next day))
- US Core PCE MoM Forecast: 0.2 % (Current month release)
- NBH Policy Rate: 5.50 % (Current) · Source: National Bank of Hungary
Securities
Themes
Regions
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