Report published September 24, 2026

FX Daily: Hawkish Wave to Hit Scandinavia Today – ING Research

ING · September 24, 2026

ING anticipates Scandinavian currencies to outperform today driven by an expected hawkish hold from Sweden's Riksbank and a 25bp rate hike by Norway's Norges Bank. Simultaneously, the US dollar rally above 101.0 appears stretched relative to fundamentals, setting the stage for a correction back to 100.0–100.5.

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Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Scandinavia faces central bank action today: the Riksbank is expected to keep rates unchanged in a hawkish hold hinting at a November hike, while Norges Bank is expected to deliver a 25bp rate hike in a close call.
2.NOK offers greater upside potential than SEK because markets only price 16bp of tightening for Norges Bank, whereas a November hike by the Riksbank is already fully priced.
3.The US dollar rally is increasingly stretched relative to fundamentals; absent further upside surprises in US data prompting full pricing of an October Fed hike, DXY should correct back to 100.0–100.5.

USD: Rally starting to look stretched
EUR: Downside risks start to shrink
Scandies: A hawkish hold and a hike
CEE: Global headwinds keep regional FX under pressure

Report data

We expect the Riksbank to deliver a hawkish hold today

Metric	Estimate	Context
DXY Level	101.0 points	Dollar jumped yesterday driven by strong PMIs, oil prices, and soft risk sentiment.
DXY Target Correction	100-100.5 points	Target correction area if US data does not prompt an October Fed hike.
USD/JPY Resistance Level	160.0 level	Level above which a return looks inevitable without Japanese intervention.
EUR/USD Fair Value Range	1.1430-1.1450 level	Level considered in line with current short-term rate differentials.
Norges Bank Expected Rate Hike	25 bp	ING's expected policy rate decision for Norges Bank today.