Report published September 23, 2026

FX Daily: Dollar Resilience Builds – ING Foreign Exchange Analysis

ING · September 23, 2026

The US dollar remains firm despite falling oil prices, driven by hawkish Fedspeak and strong US jobs indicators, with DXY targeting 101.0. EUR/USD faces downside risks toward 1.140-1.142 as markets price out ECB tightening faster than the Fed.

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Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.The US dollar retains upside momentum toward DXY 101.0, supported by resilient US labor data and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary.
2.EUR/USD faces persistent downside risks toward 1.140-1.142 as falling oil prices prompt markets to price out ECB tightening faster than Fed tightening.
3.The National Bank of Hungary delivered an expected rate pause and lowered its inflation target to 2.5%, creating a constructive domestic backdrop for the forint despite global headwinds.

USD: Staying strong
EUR: Still downside risks
HUF: A well-paused decision
CEE: FX stability masks diverging rate outlooks

Report data

Markets found little direction in Trump's UN address on Tuesday

Metric	Estimate	Context
DXY target	101.0 index points	Near-term target for the US dollar index on potential October hike bets.
US Initial Jobless Claims	<200 k	Initial claims returned below 200k, demonstrating resilient US labor market conditions.
Brent Crude Price	<100 $/bbl	Pushed below $100/bbl due to Iranian delegate talks and reopening of the Saudi East-West pipeline.
NBH Inflation Target	2.5%	Target lowered from 3.0% to 2.5% at the latest meeting.
Priced Czech Rate Tightening	100 bp	Czech rates market prices around 100bp of tightening, representing the most hawkish stance in CEE.