Report published August 25, 2026
ING FX Daily: Dollar Caught Between Trade Fronts and Bond Yields
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- ING
- Report date
- August 25, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Francesco Pesole, Chris Turner
Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
The US dollar starts the week firm on US Treasury market support and escalating US-Canada trade tensions, with baseline expectations pointing to consolidation into Jackson Hole. ING maintains a constructive outlook on AUD/USD toward 0.7260+, expects EUR/USD to hold near 1.160, and sees EUR/GBP rising to 0.870 as BoE rate hike pricing unwinds.
Key Takeaways
- 1.USD is supported by back-end US Treasury market action and US-Canada trade tensions, but baseline expects consolidation ahead of Jackson Hole.
- 2.USD/CAD rebound is projected to extend past 1.390 following the announcement of 50% US tariffs on Canadian autos and parts.
- 3.EUR/USD is expected to stabilize near 1.160 rather than break above 1.170, while EUR/GBP is favored to head toward 0.870 on BoE dovish repricing.
Table of Contents
- USD: Bond market helping a small recovery
- EUR: Still a bit expensive
- GBP: Volatility may stay subdued
- AUD: Limited dovish room ahead of CPI release
Report data
Canada's auto industry remains in the crosshairs of US trade policy
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Proposed US Tariffs on Canadian Autos and Parts | 50.0% | Announced by Trump on Canadian autos and parts |
| Bank of England Tightening Priced by Year-End | 32.0 bp | Market pricing deemed too hawkish by ING |
| Australia Headline CPI Forecast (Consensus) | 3.3% | Expected to slow from 3.8% |
| Australia Trimmed Mean CPI Forecast (Consensus) | 3.5% | Expected modest easing from 3.6% |
| Probability of RBA Rate Hike Priced by Year-End | 50.0% | Markets pricing 50% probability despite hawkish rhetoric from Governor Bullock |
Reports in this series
FX Daily is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 25, 2026.
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Proposed US Tariffs on Canadian Autos and Parts: 50.0 % (From 1 January)
- Bank of England Tightening Priced by Year-End: 32.0 bp (By year-end 2026)
- Australia Headline CPI Forecast (Consensus): 3.3 % (July) · Source: Consensus
- Australia Trimmed Mean CPI Forecast (Consensus): 3.5 % (July) · Source: Consensus
- Probability of RBA Rate Hike Priced by Year-End: 50.0 % (By year-end 2026)
Securities
Themes
Regions
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