Report published September 28, 2026

ING FX Daily: Data Back in the Driver's Seat This Week – Dollar Fatigue, RBA Hike, and EUR/USD Outlook

ING · September 28, 2026

Economic data re-emerges as the key FX driver this week as markets evaluate whether US labor indicators justify further Fed tightening. ING expects USD momentum to stall and anticipates a 25bp hawkish rate hike from the RBA.

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Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.The US dollar rally shows signs of fatigue, with risks tilted toward a pullback to around 100.50 on DXY barring substantial upside surprise in US payrolls.
2.The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to deliver a 25bp hawkish rate hike to 4.60%, keeping the door open for further tightening and supporting the AUD.
3.EUR/USD declines appear overdone according to valuation models, though elevated energy prices and widening French bond spreads present ongoing headwinds.

USD: Some tiredness in the rally?
EUR: Inflation week
AUD: Hawkish hike by RBA
CEE: Global headwinds keep currencies on the back foot

Report data

After its recent strong momentum, we see downside risks for the dollar in the next few days

Metric	Estimate	Context
FOMC October rate hike pricing	16 bp	Peaked at 19bp in the previous week.
US September Nonfarm Payrolls consensus forecast	90 k	ING expects a consensus 90k for September payrolls with downward revisions to August.
US August Nonfarm Payrolls print	162 k	August print described as a blowout figure subject to downward revision risk.
RBA Cash Rate Target (forecast)	4.60%	Expected 25bp hike by the RBA.
Eurozone Core CPI inflation (forecast)	2.5%	Core inflation expected to edge up slightly, confirming an absence of second-round effects.