Report published September 25, 2026
FX Daily: Bond Sell-Off Helps USD Consolidate Gains – ING Research
ING · September 25, 2026
A global bond sell-off and high oil prices are reinforcing a risk-off mood that supports dollar consolidation and prompts additional Fed hike pricing. EUR faces fiscal headwinds from France, CHF is pressured by a dovish SNB, and CEE currencies face mounting energy shock strains.
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Key Takeaways
- 1.The rise in back-end sovereign yields and resilient oil prices are creating a risk-off environment that underpins USD consolidation and Fed rate-hike expectations.
- 2.EUR/USD downside risks persist toward the 1.1320-1.1330 support zone as wider French-German sovereign yield spreads offset positive eurozone macroeconomic surprises.
- 3.The SNB kept policy rates unchanged and surprised markets dovishly, leaving the Swiss franc vulnerable to depreciation toward 0.9480 against EUR and 0.85 against USD.
Table of Contents
- USD: Keeping an eye on the back-end
- EUR: France a rising concern
- CHF: SNB leaves hawks disappointed
- CEE: Energy shock pushes tightening bets to new highs
Report data
The dollar is benefiting from the knock-on effects of the bond sell-off on global risk sentiment
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2-year SOFR rate change | 20 bp | Surged over the past 48 hours on hawkish Fed commentary. |
| Fed October rate hike pricing | 18 bp | Market pricing for the October FOMC meeting. |
| French 10-year yield spread over Bunds | 110 bp | French OAT-Bund 10-year yield differential amid fiscal concerns. |
| CEE rate tightening priced in (Poland and Czech Republic) | 125 bp | Rate tightening priced into market curves for both Poland and Czech Republic. |
| Brent crude price projection | 110 USD/bbl | Potential price for Brent crude before the end of the month due to lack of Gulf resolution. |
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