Report published June 12, 2026

FX Daily: ING Bank Analysis on US-Iran Geopolitics and USD Trends (June 12, 2026)

ING · June 12, 2026

Markets are reacting to potential de-escalation in US-Iran relations, though ING remains cautious given inflationary pressures and impending FOMC policy developments. The USD is expected to remain resilient.

Read the full report

Read the remaining 4 pages

View Report Sign in

Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.News of a potential US-Iran peace deal triggered a risk-on market reaction, though historical skepticism regarding such announcements persists.
2.The dollar remains supported by the Fed's tightening path despite the geopolitical news and hawkish ECB sentiment.
3.The Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) remains in a wait-and-see mode regarding the US-Iran conflict while maintaining its current policy rate of 37%.

USD: Peace deal may be close, legacy is a stronger dollar
EUR: Hawkish ECB fails to lift EUR/USD over 1.16
TRY: CBT and the market are waiting for the end of the US-Iran conflict
CEE: Risk-on mood helps the region erase previous losses

Report data

The dollar is a little softer after US President Donald Trump touted an imminent peace deal with Iran yesterday

Metric	Estimate	Context
Brent Crude Price Change	-4%	Reaction to peace news
CBT Policy Rate	37%	CBT policy decision

Source: Central Bank of Turkey. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.

Reports in this series

FX Daily is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on June 12, 2026.

Part of the FX Daily series — view all 70 editions

Looking for the latest edition? ING Think fx daily french risk keeps harming ecb hawks (Oct 6, 2026)

Access the full report

And others from the leading tier 1 banks.

Free account: read previews and a daily allowance of full reports. Pro removes the daily limit.

Create account Sign in

Authors / Editors

Chris Turner · Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for UK & CEEFrantisek Taborsky · EMEA FX & FI StrategistFrancesco Pesole · FX Strategist