Report published June 5, 2026
FX Daily: Subdued Oil Volatility Preventing USD Breakout - ING Bank (June 5, 2026)
ING · June 5, 2026
The US dollar is currently restricted from breaking higher due to suppressed oil price volatility. Investors are closely watching the US May jobs report for catalysts to further hawkish Fed rate hike expectations.
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Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Limited oil price volatility is preventing a USD breakout despite a strong macro backdrop.
- 2.US May payrolls report is expected to be a catalyst for further hawkish Fed repricing.
- 3.EUR/USD risks remain skewed to the downside below 1.160 until the upcoming ECB meeting.
Table of Contents
- FX Daily: Subdued oil volatility preventing USD breakout
- USD: Payrolls should remain USD supportive
- EUR: Risks remain on the downside
- CAD: Hoping for some stabilisation in jobs
- CEE: June CNB meeting set to be lively amid rate hike potential
Report data
Another solid US jobs report today should further support the US dollar's current momentum
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Total inventory draw | 32 million barrels | Oil market inventory trends |
| Fed rate hike pricing | 17 basis points | Market expectations for Fed rate hikes |
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