Report published September 24, 2026

France's Confidence Rebound Is Already Running Out of Steam: ING Macro Analysis

ING · September 24, 2026

France's summer economic confidence rebound has quickly faded, with September business and consumer surveys pointing to subdued domestic demand. Compounding this, 10-year OAT yields hit 4.70%, increasing fiscal strains and depressing GDP growth projections to 0.4% for 2026 and 0.9% for 2027.

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Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.French business and consumer confidence deteriorated in September, signaling sluggish autumn momentum and underperformance relative to the broader eurozone.
2.The 10-year French OAT yield reached 4.70%, its highest level since 2008, compounding fiscal pressure from an expected 2026 budget deficit of 5.4% of GDP.
3.Tightening financial and fiscal conditions are forecast to hold French GDP growth to 0.4% in 2026 and 0.9% in 2027.

Confidence is fading across the economy
The bond sell-off deepens the squeeze

Report data

The French economy is likely to continue underperforming the rest of the eurozone

Metric	Estimate	Context
French Business Climate Index	96.0 index points	Fell moving further below its long-term average
French Consumer Confidence Indicator	86.0 index points	Remained at 86, 14 points below its long-term average
Household Assessment of Past Living Standards Changes	-81.0 balance	Fell to -81 versus historical average of -49
French 10-year OAT Yield	4.7%	Briefly reached 4.70%, highest level since 2008, up ~15 bps on Wednesday and ~0.5 pp since start of September
French Government Budget Deficit (% of GDP)	5.4%	Expected to reach 5.4% of GDP in 2026 after 5.1% in 2025, and could reach 6.5% in 2027