Report published August 25, 2026
Europe's Pitch Book: Doomed by Demographics? – ING Macro Thematic Report
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- ING
- Report date
- August 25, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Marieke Blom (Chief Economist and Global Head of Research)
Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
While Europe's working-age population is projected to decline, large untapped labor reserves among women and older workers significantly mitigate the demographic drag. Healthier and better-educated cohorts, along with pension reforms, reduce expected productivity and fiscal pressures.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Europe possesses significant untapped labor reserves across women, older cohorts, and youth that can substantially offset the drag from a shrinking working-age population.
- 2.Productivity headwinds from aging are mitigated by older workers being healthier and significantly better educated than previous generations.
- 3.Fiscal strain from aging is projected to be manageable, with European spending on pensions, healthcare, and long-term care expected to rise modestly from 20% to 21.6% of GDP by 2050.
Table of Contents
- Europe’s Pitch Book: Doomed by demographics?
- Female labour force participation increased strongly in Europe (%)
- Author
- Disclaimer
Report data
Female labour force participation increased strongly in Europe (%)
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Working-age population (aged 15 to 64) | 280 million | Has remained broadly stable over the past 25 years after growing by 75 million between 1950 and 2000. |
| Projected annual decline in European workforce | 2 million people per year | Equivalent to about 0.7% of the current working-age population. |
| Public spending on pensions, health and long-term care | 20.0% to 21.6% % of GDP | Pensions currently amount to ~11.4% of GDP and health/long-term care to 8.6%, rising modestly to 21.6% by 2050. |
| Participation rate of people aged 60-65 | 23 percentage points | Europe has made faster progress in older worker participation than the US. |
| Projected decline in total hours worked | 9% | Represents less than 0.2% per year decline, far milder than headline workforce shrinkage. |
Reports in this series
Europe’s Pitch Book is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on August 25, 2026.
Part of the Europe’s Pitch Book series — view all 3 editions
Looking for the latest edition? ING Think europes pitch book if they invested europeans would prefer to do that in europe (Sep 8, 2026)
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Working-age population (aged 15 to 64): 280 million (Current (2026)) · Source: Draghi report
- Projected annual decline in European workforce: 2 million people per year (By 2040) · Source: Draghi report
- Public spending on pensions, health and long-term care: 20.0% to 21.6% % of GDP (Current to 2050)
- Participation rate of people aged 60-65: 23 percentage points (2009-2023)
- Projected decline in total hours worked: 9 % (2022-2070) · Source: Official projections
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