Report published September 7, 2026

ING EMEA FX Strategy: High Yield and CEE Currency Outlook

ING · September 7, 2026

ING highlights that modest adjustments in US interest rates should preserve EMEA carry-trade demand, especially for the Turkish lira and Kazakh tenge. Recent geopolitical and risk-off pressure on CEE currencies such as the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint should prove temporary.

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Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.A modest adjustment in US interest rates is unlikely to derail the carry trade, preserving appetite for high-yielding EMEA currencies such as the Turkish lira, Kazakh tenge, and South African rand.
2.CEE currencies experienced recent pressure from geopolitical escalation and risk-off sentiment, but fundamentals remain supportive for the Hungarian forint and Polish zloty over the medium term.
3.The Czech koruna's real yield advantage is projected to diminish as domestic headline inflation accelerates into early 2027, capping further substantial appreciation.

EMEA FX Talking: High yield and CEE remain in demand
EUR/PLN: Zloty hit by risk-off mood
EUR/HUF: The gloomy days won’t last too long for the forint
EUR/CZK: Koruna’s main advantage will lose its lustre
EUR/RON: Pressures could amplify in the near term
EUR/RSD: No major changes expected in the coming months
USD/UAH: Hryvnia strengthens despite headwinds
USD/KZT: High real rates favour continued carry-trade
USD/UZS: Supported by portfolio flows and restart of gold exports
USD/TRY: Recovery in flows, moderation in growth
USD/ZAR: Holding its own
USD/ILS: Low inflation allows rate cuts, weaker shekel

Report data

Main ING EMEA FX Forecasts

Metric	Estimate	Context
Czech Real Interest Rate	1.8%	Averaged 1.8% year-to-date while the eurozone real rate remained negative.
Romania Budget Deficit	2.34 % of GDP	Supports Romania's credit profile ahead of the S&P rating decision.
National Bank of Serbia Key Rate	5.75%	Maintained steady despite elevated uncertainty.
National Bank of Ukraine Policy Rate	15.5%	Raised by 50bp to strengthen currency resilience.
Turkey Gross Foreign Reserves	188.2 USD billion	Gross reserves reached US$188.2bn amid declining dollarisation.