Report published September 24, 2026

Czech Confidence Points to Sub-Par Expansion – ING Macro Thematic Report

ING · September 24, 2026

Czech confidence data indicates a mediocre economic outlook, as business sentiment deteriorates and rising inflation threatens to erode real wage growth. ING expects sub-2% GDP growth this year and sees a 60% probability of a CNB rate hike in November.

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Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Czech economic confidence points to mediocre expansion in coming quarters, as business confidence dropped to 98.4 while consumer confidence rose to 105.1 merely as a corrective rebound.
2.Real wage growth is forecast to slow from over 4% since 2024 to 2.6% in 2027 as higher inflation erodes household purchasing power, damping consumption growth to 1.9%.
3.Headline inflation is projected to peak at 4.0% in February 2027 and average 3.3% for the year, while core inflation is forecast to average 2.9% (peaking at 3.6% in January).

Confidence far from signalling better times ahead
Industry and services took business confidence down
Stronger inflation will reduce real wage gains
Real wage gains to soften in 2027
Less buoyant consumer expenditure ahead
Inflation on the rise
Punchy inflation outlook
Real interest rates will come under pressure

Report data

Punchy inflation outlook

Metric	Estimate	Context
Czech Consumer Confidence Indicator	105.1 points	Consumer confidence rose stronger than market expectations, though seen as a correction.
Czech Business Confidence Indicator	98.4 points	Fell below expectations and long-term average, led by services and industry.
Nominal Wage Growth Forecast	6.0%	Expected to remain relatively solid at around 6% over the next year.
Real Wage Growth Forecast	2.6%	Set to soften next year in base case from >4% observed since 2024.
Household Consumption Growth Forecast	1.9%	Average growth pace expected in 2027 due to real wage compression.