Report published September 25, 2026

CNB Minutes: Inflationary Risks Are Starting to Materialise – ING Rates Strategy

ING · September 25, 2026

The Czech National Bank's latest minutes reflect a more hawkish stance, pointing to emerging upside inflation risks across services, food, wages, and energy. Consequently, ING expects the CNB to implement a 25bp rate increase at its November meeting.

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Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.The Czech National Bank's latest minutes struck a distinctly hawkish tone, highlighting that pro-inflationary risks are starting to materialize.
2.ING expects the CNB to deliver a 25bp interest rate hike at its November meeting, with further tightening possible depending on the Fed and ECB.
3.Upward price pressures stem from resilient core inflation, food price dynamics, wage growth outpacing productivity, global energy price spikes, and a weaker koruna.

Road paved with inflationary risks
Real wages took a serious hit in the past
Rate rise is coming in November
Hike, baby, hike
Everyone is watching everyone else
Negative real rates are a thing of the past, perhaps

Report data

Hike, baby, hike

Metric	Estimate	Context
Expected CNB policy rate increase	25 bp	ING's baseline forecast for the Czech National Bank's upcoming rate decision.
Monetary policy transmission lag	1 year	Estimated lag for the full effect of monetary policy adjustments to work through the economy.

Source: ING. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.