Report published September 30, 2026
China PMIs Return to Expansion Territory, Signalling Modest Growth Uptick
ING · September 30, 2026
China's official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs returned to expansion in September at 50.1 and 50.2, respectively, pointing to a modest recovery in activity data. While external demand remains strong, policy easing aims to address lagging domestic consumption and investment to secure China's 4.5-5.0% full-year growth target.
Read the remaining 3 pages
Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.China's official manufacturing PMI climbed back into expansion at 50.1 in September, in line with expectations and crossing above 50 for the first time in three months.
- 2.The non-manufacturing PMI delivered an upside surprise, rising to 50.2 against consensus expectations of 49.2, driven by broad-based subindex improvements.
- 3.Economic growth exhibits a distinct K-shaped divergence, with external demand and manufacturing leading while domestic consumption and investment lag, prompting policy easing measures to reach the 4.5-5.0% annual GDP target.
Table of Contents
- Manufacturing PMI returns to expansionary territory
- Manufacturing PMI returns to expansion as production hits a 2026 high
- Non-manufacturing PMI beats expectations
- Non-manufacturing PMI surprisingly returned to expansion
- PMI data hints at a modest September recovery
Report data
Manufacturing PMI returns to expansion as production hits a 2026 high
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Official Manufacturing PMI | 50.1 index | Rose back into expansion territory in September, matching market and ING expectations. |
| Official Non-Manufacturing PMI | 50.2 index | Comfortably beat expectations of 49.2. |
| Manufacturing Production Subindex | 51.7 index | Reached the highest level of 2026. |
| RatingDog Manufacturing PMI | 52.1 index | Rose from 51.5 reflecting an export-oriented sample. |
| RatingDog Services PMI | 51.6 index | Beat forecasts. |
Reports in this series
Snap is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 30, 2026.
Part of the Snap series — view all 62 editions
Looking for the latest edition? ING Think german industrial production aug26 (Oct 7, 2026)
Access the full report
And others from the leading tier 1 banks.
Free account: read previews and a daily allowance of full reports. Pro removes the daily limit.
Authors / Editors
Related Reports
German Industry Picked up Steam in August
October 7, 2026
Czech Inflation Begins Its Climb to the Top
October 6, 2026
Euro Credit Supply: Issuance Surges in September
October 6, 2026
Europe's Pitch Book: Why Trade Troubles Could Be the Nudge Europe Needs
October 6, 2026
Industrial Weakness Increases the Risk of Stagnation in France
October 6, 2026