Report published September 25, 2026
ING Research: CEE & CCA Week Ahead – Inflation Data from Poland and Czech GDP
ING · September 25, 2026
The week ahead in CEE and CCA features September flash inflation data from Poland, expected to exceed 4.0% YoY, alongside Czech second-quarter GDP revisions and September PMI releases. Kazakhstan inflation is anticipated to ease modestly to 9.5% YoY, though further central bank rate cuts remain unlikely before year-end.
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Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Poland's headline CPI is projected to rise to 4.2% YoY in September, exceeding the NBP target band and bolstering expectations of policy rate hikes.
- 2.Czech Q2 GDP final growth is projected at 0.4% QoQ (1.9% YoY), while September industrial PMI is expected to soften to 53.4 due to elevated oil prices and geopolitical tensions.
- 3.Kazakhstan's headline CPI is forecast to decline from 9.8% YoY in August to 9.5% YoY in September on base effects, but the NBK is unlikely to ease policy further this year.
Table of Contents
- Poland: Inflation set to rise above 4%
- Czech Republic: GDP details and industrial PMI
- CCA: Kazakhstan inflation expected to ease on base effects
- Key events in CEE & CCA next week
Report data
Key events in CEE & CCA next week
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Poland Headline CPI (YoY) | 4.2% | ING forecast for preliminary September inflation, rising above the NBP 2.5% +/-1 pp target band from 3.4% previously |
| Poland Fuel VAT Rate | 23% | End of temporary VAT cut on fuels from 23% to 8% |
| Czech Republic GDP (YoY) | 1.9% | Final Q2 GDP growth expected to confirm headline figure |
| Czech Republic S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.4 index | ING forecast for September PMI down from 54.1 in August |
| Kazakhstan Headline CPI (YoY) | 9.5% | Expected to ease from 9.8% YoY in August largely due to base effects |
Reports in this series
CEE & CCA Week Ahead is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 25, 2026.
Part of the CEE & CCA Week Ahead series — view all 6 editions
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