Report published September 7, 2026
ING Asia FX Talking: North Asian Currencies Outperform Amid Tech Export Boom
ING · September 7, 2026
North Asian currencies and the Singapore dollar continue their solid performance, buoyed by the tech boom, strong trade dynamics, and exporter selling. However, extreme near-term drops in USD/KRW below 1350 appear difficult to sustain, while IDR and PHP remain vulnerable to external account pressures.
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Finvaulta summarizes ING's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.North Asian currencies continue to outperform, spearheaded by sharp appreciation in the Korean won, renminbi, and Taiwan dollar driven by tech export strength and exporter FX conversions.
- 2.USD/KRW has declined 13% from summer peaks, but sustaining a break below 1350 will be difficult near-term as potential Fed rate hike expectations support the US dollar.
- 3.Southeast Asian currencies display divergence; SGD remains an outperformer backed by AI investment and MAS hawkishness, whereas IDR and PHP face persistent depreciation pressures due to external imbalances and narrowed yield spreads.
Table of Contents
- Main ING Asia FX Forecasts
- USD/CNY: CNY appreciation trajectory remains intact
- USD/KRW: Sustaining a break of 1350 will be tough
- USD/INR: INR likely to stabilise at current levels
- USD/IDR: Under-performance in IDR to remerge
- USD/PHP: Weakening bias to persist for PHP
- USD/SGD: SGD should continue to outperform
- USD/TWD: TWD appreciates as headwinds fade
Report data
Main ING Asia FX Forecasts
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| USD/KRW Peak-to-Trough Decline | 13% | Fall from summer high in USD/KRW pushing spot to 1,344.80 |
| India Q2 GDP Growth | 7.8 % YoY | Surprised to the upside driven by consumer demand, exports, and public capex |
| India FCNR Inflows | 125 USD bn | Exceeded expectations and helped swing the BoP deficit into a surplus over USD 50bn |
| Bank of Korea Policy Rate | 3.00% | Looks attractive and could be raised to 3.50% over the next six months |
| BSP Policy Rate | 5.0% | BSP raised rates by 25bp to 5.0% with another 25bp hike expected in 4Q26 |
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