Report published August 28, 2026
Sweden August Inflation Preview: CPIF Pressure & Riksbank Outlook
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Handelsbanken
- Report date
- August 28, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Johan Lof
Finvaulta summarizes Handelsbanken's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Handelsbanken expects Sweden's headline CPIF inflation to accelerate to 0.9% y-o-y in August from 0.7% in July, driven by higher energy prices and firming underlying momentum. Leading indicators continue to point upward, suggesting Swedish inflation will remain above the Riksbank's baseline forecasts into 2027.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Headline CPIF inflation in Sweden is projected to pick up to 0.9% y-o-y in August, rising above the Riksbank's forecast following three consecutive upside surprises.
- 2.Energy prices have moved higher driven by fuel and electricity, with oil prices remaining high and crack spreads wide.
- 3.Leading indicators (PPI, NIER surveys) signal higher underlying inflation ahead, while unit labour cost growth remains muted and corporate profits continue to expand.
Table of Contents
- Inflation to rise in August and onwards into 2027
- Business sector inflation has slowed; stagnant unit labour cost, rising profits
- Chart pack - Inflation
- Upcoming flash-CPI release: Key forecasts
- Upcoming full CPI release: Key components
- Appendix: Handelsbanken research on inflation and monetary policy
- Research disclaimers
Report data
Business sector inflation has slowed; stagnant unit labour cost, rising profits
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| CPIF inflation forecast | 0.9% | Forecasted headline CPIF inflation y-o-y in Sweden |
| CPIF inflation actual | 0.7% | Actual Swedish CPIF inflation print for July 2026 |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- CPIF inflation forecast: 0.9 % (August 2026) · Source: Handelsbanken
- CPIF inflation actual: 0.7 % (July 2026) · Source: Statistics Sweden
Themes
Regions
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