Report published September 24, 2026

Surprisingly Hawkish Signals – Riksbank September Policy Decision

Handelsbanken · September 24, 2026

The Riksbank held its policy rate steady in September but signaled a significantly higher rate path, indicating hikes in November and March. In response, Handelsbanken brought forward its hike forecast to November and now projects the rate to peak at 2.50% by mid-2027.

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Finvaulta summarizes Handelsbanken's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.The Riksbank kept its policy rate unchanged in September but shifted its forward rate path markedly higher, projecting rate hikes in November and March.
2.Handelsbanken brought forward its expectation for the first rate hike from December to November 2026, forecasting two additional hikes in March and June 2027 to reach a terminal rate of 2.50%.
3.Higher energy prices drove upward revisions to Riksbank CPIF inflation forecasts, while the Swedish krona remains noticeably weak in the near term.

The Riksbank shifts its policy rate path markedly higher
We revise our policy rate forecast higher
Policy rate
Inflation, CPIF excluding energy
GDP growth
Unemployment
Krona exchange rate

Report data

Policy rate

Metric	Estimate	Context
Riksbank Projected Policy Rate (Q4 2026)	1.85%	Revised up from 1.82% projected in June.
Riksbank Projected Policy Rate (Q1 2027)	2.07%	Revised up from 1.89% projected in June.
Riksbank Projected Peak Policy Rate	2.41%	Peak of the new path in Q3 2028, up from previous 2.10% peak.
Handelsbanken Forecast Terminal Policy Rate	2.50%	Revised forecast expecting hikes in November, March, and June.
Estimated Neutral Policy Rate	2.25%	Handelsbanken's estimated neutral rate for the Swedish policy rate.