Fast Comment

Latest edition · September 24, 2026

Fast Comment Sweden

The Riksbank held its policy rate steady in September but signaled a significantly higher rate path, indicating hikes in November and March. In response, Handelsbanken brought forward its hike forecast to November and now projects the rate to peak at 2.50% by mid-2027.

At its September policy meeting, the Riksbank kept rates unchanged as expected but surprised markets with a markedly hawkish shift in its projected rate path, which now peaks at 2.41% in Q3 2028. Upward revisions to CPIF inflation driven by high energy prices, resilient GDP growth forecasts, and a weaker Swedish krona prompted the hawkish tone. Consequently, Handelsbanken revised its baseline forecast, expecting a rate hike in November 2026 followed by two additional hikes in March and June 2027 to bring the policy rate to 2.50%.

Key takeaways from the latest edition

• 1.The Riksbank kept its policy rate unchanged in September but shifted its forward rate path markedly higher, projecting rate hikes in November and March.
• 2.Handelsbanken brought forward its expectation for the first rate hike from December to November 2026, forecasting two additional hikes in March and June 2027 to reach a terminal rate of 2.50%.
• 3.Higher energy prices drove upward revisions to Riksbank CPIF inflation forecasts, while the Swedish krona remains noticeably weak in the near term.

What this series covers

• The Riksbank shifts its policy rate path markedly higher
• We revise our policy rate forecast higher
• Policy rate
• Inflation, CPIF excluding energy
• GDP growth
• Unemployment
• Krona exchange rate

Edition archive

• Fast Comment Sweden

  September 24, 2026

• Fast Comment Eurozone

  September 23, 2026

• Fast Comment Sweden (2)

  August 28, 2026