Report published September 24, 2026

Fast Comment Norway: Norges Bank Raised the Policy Rate to 4.50 Percent

Handelsbanken · September 24, 2026

Norges Bank raised its key policy rate to 4.50 percent, in line with Handelsbanken's baseline expectations. The central bank revised its rate trajectory up by up to 39 basis points, reinforcing a higher-for-longer stance driven by elevated firm costs and inflation persistence.

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Key Takeaways

1.Norges Bank raised its key policy rate to 4.50 percent with unanimous Committee support, matching Handelsbanken's forecast amid high uncertainty.
2.Persistently high inflation and strong growth in firms' costs are the primary drivers of the rate hike despite recent softening in core inflation.
3.The projected policy rate path was revised up by up to 39 basis points compared to June, signaling higher rates for longer and implying a roughly 50 percent probability of another hike by next summer.

Norges Bank raised the policy rate to 4.50 percent, in line with our expectations
Norges Bank raised the policy rate to 4.50 percent
Expectations for Norges Bank's key policy rate path
Norges Bank's key policy rate
Norges Bank's inflation forecast (CPI-ATE)
Norges Bank's output gap

Report data

Expectations for Norges Bank's key policy rate path

Metric	Estimate	Context
Key Policy Rate	4.5%	Norges Bank policy rate decision
Policy Rate Path Revision	39.0 bps	Upward revision to Norges Bank's policy rate projection path
Probability of Another Rate Hike	50.0%	Implicit probability of another rate hike based on Norges Bank's policy rate path
Expected Rate Cuts	2.0 cuts	Handelsbanken's baseline expectation for rate cuts following the peak