Report published September 23, 2026

Fast Comment Eurozone: Remarkable Resilience in Activity as Price Pressures Follow Energy Prices Higher – Handelsbanken Research

Handelsbanken · September 23, 2026

Eurozone September flash PMIs beat expectations with the composite index rising to 53.1, demonstrating resilience across both Germany and France despite higher energy prices. However, Handelsbanken cautions the ECB against assuming a painless policy trade-off, as further rate hikes would inevitably curb activity and corporate pricing power.

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Finvaulta summarizes Handelsbanken's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Eurozone September flash PMI showed notable resilience to energy price pressures, with the composite output index rising to 53.1 against survey expectations of 51.7.
2.Price indicators followed energy prices higher, extending trends seen since the US-Iran war began, while manufacturing is tentatively receiving a temporary boost from stock-building.
3.The ECB should not over-read activity resilience as a sign of a mild growth-inflation trade-off, because further rate hikes to counter persistent energy prices would eventually weaken activity.

Eurozone activity running above normal levels
Don't over-read activity resilience – the trade-off remains
Eurozone PMI components

Report data

Oil prices and PMI price signals

Metric	Estimate	Context
Eurozone Composite Output PMI	53.1 index	Climbed from 52.0 in August, beating the Bloomberg survey expectation of 51.7
Eurozone Services Output PMI	53.0 index	Rose from 51.6 in August, exceeding the Bloomberg survey expectation of 51.4
Eurozone Manufacturing Output PMI	53.4 index	Almost unchanged in September
Eurozone Headline Manufacturing PMI	52.7 index	Held steady in September, against Bloomberg survey expectation of 52.6