Report published September 27, 2026
The Russian Monitor: Weekly Newsletter – Russia's Draft 2027 Budget, Fiscal Tightening, and Geopolitical Developments
Halcyon Portfolio Management Limited · September 27, 2026
Halcyon's Russian Monitor recaps the week of 21–27 September 2026, highlighting Russian draft 2027 budget proposals that introduce multiple tax hikes despite previous campaign denials. It also reviews shifted Russian strike patterns toward Ukrainian economic assets and provides equity performance metrics across Russian and FSU markets.
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Finvaulta summarizes Halcyon Portfolio Management Limited's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Russia unveiled its draft 2027 federal budget with planned tax hikes targeting passive income, a 22% VAT on imported marketplace goods, a 30% windfall profit tax on miners/metallurgy/fertilizers, and an increase to 35% on foreign frozen dividend accounts.
- 2.The projected 2027 federal deficit is 2.2% of GDP (down from 3.0% in 2026), built on a conservative oil cut-off price of $50/bbl for budget funding.
- 3.Russian strike targeting has shifted from purely military and energy infrastructure to high-value Ukrainian economic assets, including ArcelorMittal's Krivoy Rog steel plant, Vodafone data centers, and major logistics hubs.
Table of Contents
- MARKETS THIS WEEK
- QUOTE OF THE WEEK
- THIS WEEK'S EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- A RARE VICTORY ON THE GROUND KEEPS UKRAINIAN MORALE HIGH
- TOTAL CONFLICT IN THE MAKING
- READ MY LIPS: NO NEW TAXES
- FIRST LOOK AT 2027 BUDGET
- COMPANY NEWS / MISCELLANEOUS
- RUSSIAN MARKET - KEY INDICATORS
- BEST AND WORST PERFORMERS
- SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE ON THE MOSCOW EXCHANGE AND KEY VALUATION METRICS
- SELECT MARKETS OF FORMER SOVIET UNION REPUBLICS: GEORGIA, UKRAINE, KAZAKHSTAN
- SECTOR PERFORMANCE
- SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE SINCE 2022 TO DATE, US$ TERMS
Report data
FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT, % OF GDP — as of September 25, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Russian Federal Budget Deficit Forecast | 2.2 % of GDP | Draft 2027 federal budget projects a lower deficit compared to 3.0% in 2026. |
| National Welfare Fund Oil Cut-Off Budget Rate | 50 $/bbl | Set lower than the $59/bbl threshold in 2026, requiring borrowing only if average oil drops below $50/bbl. |
| Brent Crude Price | 110 $/bbl | Oil price referenced as approaching $110/bbl during the reporting week. |
| Rouble / US Dollar Exchange Rate | 84.34 RUB/USD | Exchange rate as of 25 September 2026. |
| Windfall Profit Tax Rate | 30% | Tax rate applied to profits above 2025 levels for mining, metallurgy, and fertilizer producers (20% for gold melters). |
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