Who Would Be Exposed to a Ban on US Diesel Exports? – Goldman Sachs Macro Analysis

Key Takeaways

• 1.A US diesel export ban would temporarily lower US retail diesel prices by $0.25/gallon per week, creating a 2-3bp drag on headline inflation after a month, but would turn inflationary after ~2 months as diesel storage exhausts after 9-10 weeks, raising retail gasoline prices by $0.3/gallon per week.
• 2.Latin America faces the largest direct downside growth risks, where US imports account for over 50% of diesel consumption in Ecuador, Chile, Mexico, and Peru, and a sudden cutoff could lower Latin American GDP by ~1%.
• 3.Outside the Americas, direct activity impacts would be limited, but global headline inflation would rise by 0.1pp and core inflation by 0.03pp for each sustained 10% increase in diesel prices, led by higher headline impacts in Europe and core impacts in Asia.

Table of Contents

• Who Would Be Exposed to a Ban on US Diesel Exports?

Report data

Exhibit 2: A US Diesel Ban Would Put Downward Pressure on Diesel Prices, but Upward Pressure on Gasoline Prices Once Diesel Storage Runs Out

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Global Economics Comment is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on October 2, 2026.

Part of the Global Economics Comment series — view all 3 editions

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