Report published September 30, 2026
USA: Pushing Back Fed Rate Hike on Lower Core PCE Inflation — Goldman Sachs Research
Goldman Sachs · September 30, 2026
Following lower-than-expected August core PCE inflation of 3.01% YoY and dovish commentary from Fed officials, Goldman Sachs has pushed back its expected Fed rate hike from October to December. Additionally, Q2 GDP was revised up to +2.2% annualized, while the August goods trade deficit widened to $132.6bn.
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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.August core PCE inflation undershot expectations at +0.25% MoM and +3.01% YoY, prompting Goldman Sachs to push back their forecast for the next Fed rate hike from October to December.
- 2.Annual national accounts revisions and the third Q2 estimate upgraded Q2 real GDP growth by 0.7pp to +2.2% annualized, led by upward revisions to consumption and investment.
- 3.The August goods trade deficit widened more than projected to $132.6bn, while net tracking revisions slightly nudged Q3 GDP tracking down 0.1pp to +3.3%.
Table of Contents
- BOTTOM LINE
- US MAP
- KEY NUMBERS
- MAIN POINTS
Report data
PCE and GDP Revisions Chart
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Core PCE Price Index | 0.25% | Reported core PCE inflation month-over-month vs. GS expectations of +0.27% and consensus +0.3% |
| Core PCE Price Index | 3.01% | Year-over-year rate vs. GS expectations of +3.17% and consensus +3.3% |
| Real GDP Growth (Third Estimate) | 2.2% | Revised up from previous estimate, largely reflecting upward revisions to consumption and investment |
| Advance Goods Trade Balance | -132.6 USD billions | Deficit widened more than consensus of -$115.3bn and GS -$116.0bn |
| ADP Private Sector Employment Change | 90 k | Private employment rose slightly above consensus (+75k) |
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