Report published September 2, 2026
US ADP Employment: August 2026 Analysis & Wage Growth by Goldman Sachs
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- September 2, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Jan Hatzius, David Mericle, Alec Phillips, Ronnie Walker, Elsie Peng, Pierfrancesco Mei, Jessica Rindels, Abhay Duggirala
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
US ADP private employment increased by 38k in August, roughly in line with consensus forecasts. Goldman Sachs left its August nonfarm payrolls estimate unchanged at +40k ahead of Friday's data.
Key Takeaways
- 1.ADP private sector employment grew by 38k in August, roughly in line with consensus expectations (vs. GS +55k, consensus median +47k).
- 2.Services employment expanded by 48k, driven by education and health services (+45k) and leisure and hospitality (+16k), offsetting goods-producing declines (-10k, led by manufacturing -17k).
- 3.ADP launched a new base pay measure excluding overtime, bonuses, and tips, showing wage growth of 3.0% yoy for job stayers and 4.7% for job changers.
Table of Contents
- BOTTOM LINE
- US MAP
- KEY NUMBERS
- MAIN POINTS
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Key figures extracted from this report
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| ADP Private Sector Employment Change | 38.0 k | Private sector employment increase month-over-month seasonally adjusted |
| Services Sector Employment Change | 48.0 k | Employment increase in services sector |
| Goods-Producing Sector Employment Change | -10.0 k | Employment decline in goods-producing industries |
| Job Stayers Median Gross Pay Growth | 4.4 % yoy | Median annual gross pay increase year-over-year in August, in line with July pace |
| Job Changers Median Gross Pay Growth | 7.3 % yoy | Median gross pay growth for job changers in August |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- ADP Private Sector Employment Change: 38.0 k (August 2026) · Source: ADP
- Services Sector Employment Change: 48.0 k (August 2026) · Source: ADP
- Goods-Producing Sector Employment Change: -10.0 k (August 2026) · Source: ADP
- Job Stayers Median Gross Pay Growth: 4.4 % yoy (August 2026) · Source: ADP
- Job Changers Median Gross Pay Growth: 7.3 % yoy (August 2026) · Source: ADP
Themes
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