Report published September 29, 2026

US Election Monitor: Relaunching Our US Election Monitor for the Midterms – Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs · September 29, 2026

Goldman Sachs relaunches its US Election Monitor for the 2026 congressional midterms, highlighting prediction market pricing of an over 90% chance of Democrats taking the House and an over 60% chance of taking the Senate. However, historical polling overstatements for Democrats and recent aggressive Republican spending could narrow Senate races.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Prediction markets indicate a greater than 90% probability that Democrats will flip the House and more than a 60% probability of gaining a Senate majority, pointing to a Democratic sweep as the most likely outcome.
2.Democrats hold an 8.5 percentage point lead on the national generic congressional ballot—an 11 percentage point swing compared to 2024—driven in part by high voter salience and negative net approval for Donald Trump on inflation and the economy.
3.Historical midterm polling patterns and prediction markets tend to overstate challenging party sweep odds and Democratic margins in Republican-leaning states at this point in the cycle.

Senate
House

Report data

Exhibit 6: Prediction Markets Imply a Democratic Sweep Is Most Likely, and Near Certainty That Democrats Will Win the House — as of September 28, 2026.

Metric	Estimate	Context
Generic Congressional Ballot Democratic Lead	8.5 pp	Average lead for Democrats in national generic ballot polling
Prediction Market Implied Probability of Democratic Senate Majority	>60%	Implied probability that Democrats net 4 seats to reach a majority
Prediction Market Implied Probability of Democratic House Majority	>90%	Implied odds of Democrats netting at least 3 seats to flip the House
Republican-Held House Seats Won by Trump by <11pp	26 seats	Key vulnerable House seats aligned with the implied national swing
Democratic Odds in Marginal Texas Senate Race	60%	Prediction market implied odds for the marginal 51st Senate seat

Source: Silver Bulletin, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research; Kalshi, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research; Kalshi, Polymarket, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research; Cook Political Report, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. This is a dated model snapshot, not a live forecast.