Report published September 30, 2026
Updating Estimates: See 16% Average Total Return for Canadian Oils at Long-Term Brent Price Near $75/B; Most Upside to CVE, CNQ
Goldman Sachs · September 30, 2026
Goldman Sachs updates financial estimates across Canadian oil producers, forecasting an average 16% total return supported by long-term Brent oil at $75/b and stronger refining crack spreads. The firm highlights Buy ratings on Cenovus Energy (31% return potential) and Canadian Natural Resources (27%), while maintaining a Neutral on Suncor and Sell on Imperial Oil.
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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Goldman Sachs models an average 16% total return across Canadian Oils, maintaining Buy ratings on Cenovus Energy (CVE) and Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) with 31% and 27% total return potential, respectively.
- 2.Brent oil price forecasts are raised to $80/b in 2027 while maintaining $75/b in 2028, with crack spreads (NYH Brent 5:3:2) raised from ~$26/b to $29/b in 2028 on tighter refining fundamentals.
- 3.Cenovus Energy offers a key near-term catalyst with first oil at West White Rose in late 3Q26, turning a multi-year capex overhang into a free cash flow inflection as net debt approaches its C$4 bn target.
Table of Contents
- Cenovus Energy (CVE)
- Canadian Natural (CNQ)
- Suncor Energy (SU)
- Imperial Oil (IMO.TO)
Report data
Exhibit 1: Canadian Oils Comp Sheet
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Oil Price Forecast (2027E) | 80 $/b | Raised from prior estimate |
| Brent Oil Price Forecast (2028E) | 75 $/b | Maintained at $75/b |
| NYH (Brent) 5:3:2 Crack Spread (2028E) | 29 $/b | Increased from roughly $26/b prior |
| Canadian Oils Average Net Return Potential | 16% | Average 12-month total return across covered Canadian Oils |
| Cenovus Energy 12-Month Target Price | 40.00 USD | Buy rating maintained |
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Americas Energy is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 30, 2026.
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