Report published September 28, 2026
Goldman Sachs: UK Trip Notes: US Rates, Energy and AI Shaping the Macro Landscape
Goldman Sachs · September 28, 2026
Goldman Sachs summarizes discussions from a UK marketing trip, showing investor focus on US rates, energy prices, and AI as primary drivers of EM Asia assets. Markets favor AI- and energy-linked currencies like KRW, TWD, and MYR, while expressing caution on energy importers and narrowing rate differentials in IDR and PHP.
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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Global and EM Asia macro dynamics are heavily steered by higher US rates, elevated energy prices, and structural AI investment, driving a hawkish stance across central banks.
- 2.AI export exposure continues to heavily support KRW and TWD external balances, with strong consensus bullishness on both currencies and downside asymmetry for USD/TWD.
- 3.Long MYR/THB is a favored regional relative-value trade, capitalizing on Malaysia's gas and AI export exposure versus Thailand's sensitivity to high energy import bills.
Table of Contents
- 1. Three key themes: US rates, energy and AI.
- 2. AI-investment theme to benefit the KRW into next year with clear asymmetry for USD/TWD.
- 3. The MYR should be the clearest beneficiary of higher energy prices and continued AI investment.
- 4. Lower SRBI yields may initially be supportive for Indonesian bonds, but narrower rate differentials should ultimately lead to a weaker IDR.
- 5. Mixed view on whether the INR can outperform EM Asia high-yield currencies; consensus bearish view on PHP.
- 6. The consensus view on China is that the economy is bifurcated, rates should stay low while the currency appreciates gradually.
Report data
Key figures extracted from this report
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 5.2% | Global equity markets have shown resilience despite high US benchmark yields. |
| KRW Rally vs USD | 14% | KRW has experienced a major rally, yet investors remain bullish. |
| South Korea Current Account Surplus Forecast | 400 USD billion | Goldman Sachs forecast, representing 19% of GDP and triple the 2025 level. |
| Taiwan Current Account Surplus as % of GDP | 25% | Surplus provides solid fundamental backing for TWD appreciation. |
| Bank Indonesia 1-year SRBI cut-off yield | 6.75% | Declined by almost 100bp from peak of 7.70% in early July. |
Reports in this series
EM Asia FX/Rates Views is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 28, 2026.
Part of the EM Asia FX/Rates Views series — view all 3 editions
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