Report published August 13, 2026
Goldman Sachs Research: UK Q2 GDP Grows +0.4% in Line with Expectations
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- August 13, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: James Moberly (Author), Simone Gozzini (Intern)
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
UK real GDP grew by 0.4% qoq in Q2 2026, matching expectations, with June monthly GDP surprisingly firm at +0.3% mom due to services strength. Consequently, Goldman Sachs raised its Q3 GDP tracking estimate to +0.3% qoq from +0.1% previously.
Key Takeaways
- 1.UK real GDP grew by 0.4% qoq in Q2 2026, matching Goldman Sachs and consensus expectations.
- 2.June monthly GDP expanded by 0.3% mom, beating expectations due to resilience in services and temporary tailwinds like the FIFA World Cup.
- 3.Goldman Sachs raised its Q3 GDP tracking estimate to +0.3% qoq (from +0.1% previously) due to the stronger exit momentum from June.
Table of Contents
- BOTTOM LINE
- KEY NUMBERS
- MAIN POINTS
- European Economics Team
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Exhibit 1: Our Nowcasting Model Implies Growth of +0.3%qoq in Q3
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Real GDP Growth (Q2 2026) | 0.4 % qoq | Quarterly UK GDP growth in line with GS and consensus expectations |
| Monthly Real GDP Growth (June 2026) | 0.3 % mom | Surprised upside vs GS forecast of 0.0% and consensus of -0.1% |
| Services Sector Growth (June 2026) | 0.4 % mom | Driven by professional, scientific, technical, and administrative services |
| Gross Fixed Capital Formation Growth (Q2 2026) | 1.2 % qoq | Driven by increased investment in ICT equipment and machinery |
| Tracking GDP Estimate (Q3 2026) | 0.3 % qoq | Upgraded tracking forecast on firmer June figures |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Real GDP Growth (Q2 2026): 0.4 % qoq (Q2 2026) · Source: ONS
- Monthly Real GDP Growth (June 2026): 0.3 % mom (June 2026) · Source: ONS
- Services Sector Growth (June 2026): 0.4 % mom (June 2026) · Source: ONS
- Gross Fixed Capital Formation Growth (Q2 2026): 1.2 % qoq (Q2 2026) · Source: ONS
- Tracking GDP Estimate (Q3 2026): 0.3 % qoq (Q3 2026) · Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Themes
Regions
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