Report published September 29, 2026
TotalEnergies SE: 2026 CMD: $2.5bn Quarterly Buyback and Higher Capex to Support Production Growth to 2035 – Goldman Sachs Research
Goldman Sachs · September 29, 2026
Following TotalEnergies' 2026 Strategy & Outlook Day, Goldman Sachs reiterates its Neutral rating and €87 price target. The company increased net capex guidance to $14-17bn/y, extended production plateau targets to 2035, and boosted quarterly buybacks to $2.5bn, but continues to trade at a 33% valuation premium to peers.
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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Goldman Sachs reiterates a Neutral rating with an unchanged 12-month price target of €87, noting TotalEnergies trades at a 33% valuation premium (5.9x 2026E EV/DACF vs 4.4x for EU peers).
- 2.TotalEnergies stepped up quarterly buybacks to $2.5bn for 4Q26 and $2.0-2.5bn for 1Q27, while instituting a multi-year DPS growth target of >+5% per annum for 2026-2030.
- 3.Net capex guidance was raised to $14-17bn p.a. for 2027-2032 (up $0.5bn/y at the midpoint), extending visibility and supporting a sustained production plateau of c.3 mboed to 2035.
Table of Contents
- Ratios & Valuation
- Growth & Margins (%)
- Price Performance
- Income Statement ($ mn)
- Balance Sheet ($ mn)
- Cash Flow ($ mn)
- 2026 Strategy & Outlook Day: Key takeaways
- Step-up in cash returns to shareholders
- Capex increase and production growth extended to 2035
- Best-in-class energy transition story and lower carbon intensity
- Valuation: Above-average valuation vs. EU Big Oils, with a 33% premium on 2026E EV/DACF
Report data
GS Forecast — as of September 28, 2026.
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 12-month Price Target | 87.00 EUR | Based on a 7.0x EV/DACF multiple applied to 2027E cash flow. |
| Share Price | 80.00 EUR | Closing share price as of 28 September 2026. |
| Net Capex Guidance | 14-17 USD bn pa | Raised from prior guidance of $14-16bn pa over 2027-2030, a c.$0.5bn/y increase at midpoint. |
| Share Buyback Authorization (4Q26) | 2.5 USD bn | Quarterly share buyback authorized by the Board, up from $1.5bn in 2Q26. |
| Oil & Gas Production Growth Ambition | 2-3 % pa | Sustaining a production plateau of c.3 mboed to 2035. |
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