Three Things in China: Goldman Sachs on US-China Relations, PBOC FX Signals, and PMI Outlook

Key Takeaways

• 1.The Trump-Xi summit concluded with both sides signaling an intent to maintain the status quo through 2026, though tensions over rare earths and critical supply chains remain unresolved.
• 2.The PBOC maintained its broad monetary policy stance in its Q3 MPC statement while signaling increased focus on curbing RMB appreciation overshoot ahead of year-end FX settlements.
• 3.Goldman Sachs expects official September PMIs to increase, with manufacturing moving to expansion at 50.4 (from 49.8) and non-manufacturing rising to 49.4 (from 49.0), aided by quarter-end residual seasonality and better weather.

Table of Contents

• Our client survey indicated low expectations among global investors ahead of the summit
• Recent GS China macro research
• The China Economics Team

Report data

Our client survey indicated low expectations among global investors ahead of the summit

Reports in this series

Three Things in China is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on September 27, 2026.

Part of the Three Things in China series — view all 9 editions

Looking for the latest edition? China Three things in China(31) (Oct 11, 2026)

1. May 26China Three things in China
2. Aug 16China Three things in China(24)
3. Sep 6China Three things in China(26)
4. Sep 13China Three things in China(27)