Report published September 25, 2026

Goldman Sachs: The 720: AI Capex ROIC & Agentic Commerce

Goldman Sachs · September 25, 2026

Goldman Sachs outlines a framework showing US hyperscalers need $1.42 trillion in CY2028-30 revenues to justify Phase 2 AI capex with a 15% ROIC, while exploring the rise of agentic commerce. The daily note also features updates on Hon Hai, Rohto, Japan Exchange, Murata, Lasertec, Asia CDMO firms, and downward revised USD/JPY forecasts.

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Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.

Key Takeaways

1.Six major US hyperscalers will need to generate an estimated cumulative $1.42 trillion in CY2028-30 revenues ($11.6B annually per GW) to earn a 15% ROIC on Phase 2 AI compute investments.
2.Agentic commerce represents a long-duration secular shift that will migrate advertising monetization and commerce intent, benefiting infrastructure, payments, and platform leaders.
3.Asia Healthcare CDMO Day highlighted robust backlog growth and capacity expansion in peptides and ADCs across Chinese and Indian contract manufacturers.

In Focus | AI Economy & Agentic Commerce
Themes in Play | Hon Hai, Rohto, Furukawa Electric, Japan Exchange, China Banks, Yaskawa, Fanuc
GS Events | Murata, Lasertec
Asia Healthcare CDMO Day | Wuxi XDC, Pharmaron, Asymchem, Neuland Labs, Laurus Labs
Asia Macro | Japan FX
Around the World | Meta
Graphic Language | US Technology – Our Hyperscaler ROIC Framework (Capex to Revenue Bridge)
Asia Market Intelligence

Report data

Key figures extracted from this report

Metric	Estimate	Context
AI Upfront Deployment Cost per Gigawatt	42.0 USD billion / GW	Hyperscaler upfront capital expenditure assumption for Phase 2 AI compute investments.
Hyperscaler Projected Deployments	57.0 GW	Projected cumulative compute capacity deployments across major US hyperscalers.
Cumulative Revenue Required for 15% ROIC	1.42 USD trillion	Revenue needed by six major US hyperscalers to clear 15% ROIC hurdle on Phase 2 capex.
Hon Hai 3Q26E Revenue	2.9 NT$ trillion	Revenue forecast driven by AI server racks and CPO switch delivery ramp.
USD/JPY 12-Month Forecast	150.0 JPY per USD	Revised lower reflecting BOJ rate hike path and constructive Japanese domestic policy.