Report published September 2, 2026
Goldman Sachs: Super El Niño Poses Risk to Concentrated Sugar Market
Source and citation context
- Issuer
- Goldman Sachs
- Report date
- September 2, 2026
- Analysis as of
- Not stated in source
Authors / editors: Lina Thomas, Daan Struyven
Finvaulta summarizes Goldman Sachs's analysis. Attribute opinions, forecasts, time-sensitive values, and chronology to the issuer and report date; do not treat this page as an independent verification or a current market-data source.
A developing Super El Niño poses significant tightening risks to global sugar markets, as Brazil, India, and Thailand supply approximately 70% of global exports. Supply faces risks across four channels: reduced cane yields, lower sugar content from harvesting floods, diversion into ethanol, and precautionary export restrictions.
Key Takeaways
- 1.A Super El Niño poses high supply disruption risks to the global sugar market because approximately 70% of global exports are concentrated in Brazil, India, and Thailand.
- 2.El Niño tightens sugar markets via four mechanisms: drought-reduced cane yields, flood disruptions cutting sugar content, weaker corn crops diverting sugarcane into ethanol, and precautionary export bans.
- 3.The primary near-term downside risk to raw sugar prices through October 2026 is a potential recovery in Brazilian sugar content following earlier flood disruptions.
Table of Contents
- Super El Niño Poses Risk to Concentrated Sugar Market: What to Watch
- El Niño Could Tighten the Global Sugar Market In Four Ways
- What to Watch in the Sugar Market
- Through Oct 2026: Watch rainfall and UNICA-reported sugar content in Brazil's harvest for signs that earlier flood-related disruptions are easing
- Through Oct 2026: Watch rainfall deficits in India for signs of weaker sugarcane yield in the Asian growing season
- Through Dec 2026: Watch Indian rainfall deficits, sugar stocks, and production expectations for signs of restrictive trade policies in Asia
- Oct 2026 - Apr 2027: Watch for rainfall deficits for potential losses in estimated sugarcane volumes during Brazil's 2027 growing season
- Jan 2027 - Apr 2027: Watch rainfall deficits shorten Brazil's safrinha corn growing window, risking weaker corn production and greater diversion of sugarcane into ethanol during the Apr-Sep 2027 corn harvest as reported by UNICA
- Disclosure Appendix
Report data
Exhibit 4: The Risks From El Niño Run Through the Different Stages of the Sugar Season
| Metric | Estimate | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Probability of Super El Niño developing | 90% | NOAA assessment of El Niño conditions developing into a super El Niño |
| Share of global sugar exports from Brazil, India, and Thailand | 70% | Concentration of global sugar exports exposed to El Niño weather risks |
| Raw sugar price increase since August 6 release | 18% | Sugar price rally after UNICA reported low sugar content per cane |
| Share of Brazilian sugar production from Centro-Sul | 90% | Geographic concentration of sugar production within Brazil |
| India's share of global sugar exports | 6% | India's historical export share at risk of shifting to net importer |
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Authors / Editors
Reported Data Context
- Probability of Super El Niño developing: 90 % (Winter 2026-2027) · Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- Share of global sugar exports from Brazil, India, and Thailand: 70 % (2025/2026 marketing year) · Source: USDA
- Raw sugar price increase since August 6 release: 18 % (August 6 - September 2026) · Source: UNICA / Goldman Sachs GIR
- Share of Brazilian sugar production from Centro-Sul: 90 % (Current) · Source: Goldman Sachs GIR
- India's share of global sugar exports: 6 % (Historical average) · Source: Goldman Sachs GIR
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